U.S. cancer mortality has decreased 26% from 1975 to 2020, but the contributions of different interventions across the cancer control continuum to averting cancer deaths have not been systematically evaluated across major cancer sites. To fill this gap, the National Cancer Institute (NCI)-funded Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) consortium, in collaboration with the Directors from NCI’s Divisions of Cancer Control and Population Sciences and of Cancer Prevention, used simulation modeling to systematically quantify the contributions of prevention, screening, and treatment to cumulative number of cancer deaths averted from 1975 to 2020 for breast, cervical, colorectal, lung, and prostate cancers.

The CISNET consortium began in 2000 and uses comparative modeling, in which multiple independently developed models for a cancer site coordinate to address the same research questions. For these five cancers, we estimated that cancer control efforts across the continuum averted 5.94 million deaths. Further, we found that over the past 45 years, cancer prevention and screening accounted for approximately 80% of these averted deaths, although there was variation across the five cancers. In this presentation, Drs. Feuer and Stout introduce CISNET, describe the simulation methodologies, and discuss the results and implications.

Dr. Eric J. (Rocky) Feuer retired in 2023 as Chief of the Statistical Research and Applications Branch, Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, NCI. He has authored over 250 publications in cancer control modeling and statistical methods for population-based cancer statistics. In 2000, he founded and served as the Lead Project Scientist for CISNET, a collaborative simulation modeling consortium that helps guide public health research and priorities. He is a fellow of the American Statistical Association and was the 2008 president of the Eastern North American Region of the International Biometric Society. Recognition includes 14 NCI Director’s Awards, two NIH Director’s Awards, and the 2025 North American Association of Central Cancer Registries Calum S. Muir Award in tribute to his career dedicated to developing innovative methods to evaluate, analyze, present, and interpret cancer surveillance statistics. Dr. Feuer was one of four 2023 Paul A. Volcker Career Achievement finalists across all federal agencies as part of the Samuel J. Heyman Service to America Medals® (the “Sammies”).

Dr. Natasha K. Stout is a decision scientist and Program Director in the Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences at the NCI. Currently, she is the Lead Project Scientist for the CISNET consortium. Before joining NCI, she was based at the Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute in Boston, Massachusetts, where she was Associate Professor of Population Medicine. Her research interests include the development and use of population-based computer simulation models and analysis of real-world electronic health data to guide health care decision-making across the cancer control spectrum and improve population health. As a lead in the NCI-funded CISNET Breast Working Group and NCI-funded Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium, Dr. Stout has made major contributions to the evaluation of breast cancer screening programs and assessment of existing and emerging screening technologies. She is a Past President of the Society for Medical Decision Making.